Scientists from Europe have conducted a number of studies on the impact of increased carbon dioxide emissions.
Thomas Gesser, who works at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, explained that an assessment of the carbon dioxide emissions budget was carried out. This concept determines the largest amount of CO2 emissions in the corresponding time period. At the same time, calculations are made based on the temperature, which should not be exceeded by all members of international climate relations.
This concept is regularly used by officials in disputes about global warming and the calculation of quotas for greenhouse gas emissions. There is an assumption that the increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere and the accumulation of carbon dioxide in it are linearly dependent.
However, scientists who have conducted research have proven that this dependence is exponential. An example of this exponentiality is the impact of global warming on melting permafrost. This is the part of the earth's crust where there is no periodic thawing from 2 years to a millennium.
In view of the duration of this state, carbon dioxide and other organic compounds accumulate in the permafrost. When it melts, all this is released. This process is not taken into account when modeling and forecasting climate change.
Due to the recent rise in temperatures, the thawing layer increases and deepens. The result is the release and release of CO2 into the atmosphere in large volumes.
Thomas Gesser explained that this process reduces the amount of carbon dioxide that mankind has planned to release into the atmosphere in order not to increase the established level of global warming. All this is steadily leading to an increase in the emission budget. Scientists predict its imminent excess, based on the requirements of the Paris Agreement.
What the Paris Agreement means.
It was adopted in 2015. Representatives of the countries that signed it agreed that they would take measures to prevent an increase in temperature on Earth until 2100. Its growth can be no more than 1.5 - 20 C in comparison with the indicators that took place at the beginning of general industrialization.
This agreement was signed by more than 90 countries that emit almost 60% of all greenhouse gases.
Scientists say that due to warming, the permafrost is melting, this leads to the release of greenhouse gases. Which, in turn, leads to even greater warming. It is predicted that the norms of the Paris Agreement will be exceeded in 10 - 20 years. However, if we do not change our attitude towards nature, this will happen even earlier.
This agreement provides for a slow deviation from the allowable one and a half degree warming to two degrees. However, this indicator may not resist. The scenario is rather negative.
Point of no return.
Researchers have come to the conclusion that the processes of melting permafrost can lead our planet to a "turning point" or point of no return. At the same time, the continuation of its melting will release more and more carbon dioxide, regardless of whether countries can reduce their emissions into the atmosphere or not.
In addition, experts said that going back to previous acceptable levels would be difficult, rather impossible.
The conducted experiments, in their words, show the whole world the danger of crossing the point of no return, upon crossing which huge reserves of methane and carbon dioxide will be released into the planet's atmosphere, which will lead to irreversible changes in the climate and the environment.
The Topic of Article: European scientists are concerned about the increasing rate of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere.